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a ADAS Research, Wergs Road, Wolverhampton WV6 8TQ, UK
b National Soil Resources Institute, Cranfield University, Silsoe, Bedfordshire MK45 4DT, UK
* Corresponding author(m99102{at}adas.co.uk)
Increased temperatures caused by climatic change may increase the turnover of soil organic matter (SOM) and hence reduce soil organic C (SOC). This effect may be exacerbated if crop yields decrease in consequence of policies that limit fertilizer-N applications to reduce N pollution from agriculture. Model simulations were made of changes in SOC over 140 yr under three fertilizer-N regimes to examine the effects of changes in fertilizer-N use on SOC in arable soils in England and Wales (E&W). The RothC model was used in preference to CENTURY as the input fertilizer-N could be changed in RothC and could not in CENTURY. Results indicate that decreasing annual fertilizer-N use to 50 or 100 kg ha-1 less than is currently applied to cereals in E&W will have a negligible impact on SOC in arable soils over the next 140 yr. Soils with >180 g kg-1 clay with 16 to 27 g kg-1 SOC at the beginning of the model runs, were predicted to have about 21 to 23 g kg-1 SOC after 140 yr, while soils with <180 g kg-1 clay and about 12 g kg-1 SOC would change little over 140 yr. Increases in temperature because of climate change were predicted to reduce SOC concentrations to about 18 to 20 and 11 g kg-1 respectively.
Abbreviations: DM, dry matter DPM, decomposable plant material E&W, England and Wales Nopt, the amount of fertilizer-N required to obtain economic optimum yield NSI, National Soils Inventory OM, organic matter RPM, resistant plant material SFP, UK Survey of Fertilizer Practice SOC, soil organic C SOM, soil organic matter
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