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Soil Survey Interpretation—Yield Prediction¹

ABSTRACT

Crop yield predictions can be made for specific soil, climatic, and management conditions if adequate data are available from surveys, farm records, experimental plots, or other sources. The accuracy of a crop yield estimate will of course depend upon the original data, but it also depends upon (a) whether the estimate is for 1 year or a period of years, and (b) whether it is for 1 tract or for several tracts. The latter kind of crop yield estimate approximates a soil type mean. Typical accuracy limits are given for crop yield estimates based upon different sample sizes and sources of data.

Crop yields on farms tend to be from 75 to 95% of yields on experiment plots with similar soils and management practices.

Illustrations are given of how crop yield data from various sources can be combined to indicate response curves and the productive capacity of different soils.

¹ Contribution from the Department of Agronomy, Illinois Agr. Exp. Sta., Urbana. Presented before joint meeting of Divs. V and VI, Soil Science Society of America, Nov. 13, 1956 at Cincinnati, Ohio.

² Professor of Soil Physics, University of Illinois.

Received for publication October 8, 1957. Accepted for publication November 12, 1957.